The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
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Leading Off
● OH-06: Democrats turned in a monster overperformance in a House race in a deep-red Ohio district on Tuesday night, once again raising questions about whether special elections or polls offer better guidance about the party’s fortunes in November.
Republican state Sen. Michael Rulli hung on to defeat Democrat Michael Kripchik by a 55-45 margin in the 6th Congressional District to serve out the final six months of former Rep. Bill Johnson’s term. But that spread was a far cry from Donald Trump’s showing in the same district, which he carried 64-35 in 2020.
That represented a 19-point improvement for Kripchak, an Air Force veteran who, according to the Canton Repository, took a leave of absence from his job at a restaurant to focus on his campaign.
Rulli, by contrast, had every advantage heading into the race. After flipping a Democratic-held Senate seat in 2018, he won a second term in a landslide in 2022. He also swamped his opponent in fundraising, taking in almost $700,000 through May 22 while Kripchak brought in just over $20,000—a pittance for a congressional race.
And while most of Rulli’s spending came before a contested GOP primary in mid-March, he still deployed more than $100,000 during what was supposed to be an uncompetitive affair.
The two candidates will face off once again this fall for a full term, but of more immediate concern for Republicans is that—as they did in 2018 and again in 2022 after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade—they are consistently underperforming in special elections.
Compared to the presidential toplines, Kripchak turned in the best showing by a Democrat in a special election for Congress this cycle, of which there have been six so far. He also outran Joe Biden’s numbers by double-digits in every county in the district—including by 46 points in Tuscarawas—except for one (Mahoning, which is Rulli’s home base and also where his family owns a pair of eponymous grocery stores; Kripchak still managed to win it).
More broadly, Democrats are now outperforming Biden by an average of 3.8 points across 58 special elections, both congressional and legislative, since the midterms—and Biden himself won the national popular vote by 4.5 points four years ago.
As Daily Kos Elections contributing editor Daniel Donner has demonstrated, special election results, taken in aggregate, correlate closely with general election results for the U.S. House. That suggests a favorable political environment for Democrats that speaks well of their chances to take back the lower chamber, even though an average of generic congressional ballot polls compiled by 538 shows the parties tied.
Notably, southeastern Ohio is not the sort of place you’d expect a Democratic surge. While those with college degrees, as the New York Times’ Nate Cohn noted, “make up an outsize share of special electorates,” Ohio’s 6th District has one of the lowest rates of educational attainment in the nation. Just 20% of residents are college graduates, putting it in the bottom 5% of districts nationwide.
It’s also heavily rural and almost 90% white—the very sort of turf that has been trending sharply against Democrats, who last won the seat since 2008 and, until Tuesday, hadn’t cleared 40% in a single House race since 2012.
Polling may currently paint a different picture for Democrats, but the same was in many cases true in 2022, even after a series of strong Democratic performances in special elections following the Dobbs decision called into question whether a much-prophesied red wave was gathering strength. That wave, of course, failed to materialize, and special elections are once again counseling against relying too much on the polls.
Election Recaps
● ME-02 (R): State Rep. Austin Theriault defeated his state House colleague, Mike Soboleski, in the primary to take on Democratic Rep. Jared Golden. Theriault leads 66-34 as of Wednesday morning with the Associated Press estimating that 82% of the vote has been tabulated. It’s possible the margin may change as the remaining ballots are counted, but the outcome is not in doubt.
Donald Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson were among the prominent Republicans who lined up behind Theriault, a former NASCAR driver. (His career-best performance in the NASCAR Cup Series was 32nd place.) Golden has won three terms in this northern Maine district, which supported Trump 52-45 in the most recent presidential election, but the GOP is hoping that Theriault will be able to succeed where others have failed.
● ND-Gov (R): Rep. Kelly Armstrong turned in a 73-27 landslide against Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller to win the GOP nod to succeed Republican Gov. Doug Burgum in this dark red state. While Burgum supported Miller, Armstrong had posted huge leads in the polls even before Trump endorsed him last month.
Armstrong will face Democratic state Sen. Merrill Piepkorn, a former radio host and country singer who faced no intra-party opposition. Democrats last won this post in 1988 when the late George Sinner claimed his second term.
● ND-AL (R): Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak defeated former state Rep. Rick Becker 46-30 to win the primary for the statewide House seat that GOP Rep. Kelly Armstrong is giving up to run for governor.
Becker, a hardliner who challenged GOP Sen. John Hoeven as an independent in 2022, had the support of the Club for Growth and House Freedom Caucus. But figures like Hoeven and Gov. Doug Burgum had lined up behind Fedorchak, and she went on to get Trump’s endorsement in the final weeks of the contest.
● ND Ballot: North Dakota voters approved Initiated Measure 1, a state constitutional amendment that would bar anyone older than 80 from representing the state in Congress, 61-39.
This amendment is all but certain to face a legal challenge. Conservatives, however, are hoping it will lead the U.S. Supreme Court to reconsider a 1995 decision that ruled that the only qualifications states could impose on congressional candidates were those spelled out in the nation’s governing document: namely, a minimum (but not maximum) age, a minimum period of U.S. citizenship, and residency in the state (but not congressional district) they’re seeking to represent at the time of election.
But the Supreme Court’s hard shift to the right over the ensuing three decades may give supporters the chance to at least partly overturn that earlier decision. Such a win, long sought by proponents of term limits, could open the door to dramatic changes affecting who could serve in Congress and for how long.
The North Dakota plan also includes one feature designed to go into effect in case the courts aren’t so accommodating. The text of the amendment says that if the courts block the proposal’s maximum age limit, an “advisory” would appear on the ballot next to the names of congressional candidates informing voters how old they’d be when their term would end.
● NV-Sen (R): Army veteran Sam Brown beat former Ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter 60-15 for the right to face Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen. The NRSC recruited Brown, who lost the 2022 primary for Nevada’s other Senate seat, for what will be one of the most competitive Senate races in the country.
● NV-01 (R): Army veteran Mark Robertson, the GOP’s nominee in 2022, earned his second shot at Democratic Rep. Dina Titus by besting restaurateur Flemming Larsen 48-39. Robertson had struggled to raise money, but donors may take another look at him following his victory over Larsen, who self-funded $1.5 million.
Joe Biden carried this seat in the eastern Las Vegas area 53-45 in 2020, while Titus herself held off Robertson 52-46 two years later in an expensive contest.
National Democrats and Republicans have sent opposing signals about how competitive they believe the general election will be in the 1st District, as well as in the neighboring 3rd and 4th Districts. Two months ago, the House Majority PAC reserved almost $7 million in ad time for the Las Vegas media market, which covers all three constituencies. The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund, however, has yet to book anything.
● NV-03 (R): In an upset, conservative columnist Drew Johnson defeated two self-funding rivals, former state Treasurer Dan Schwartz and music composer Marty O’Donnell, to secure the GOP nomination to take on Democratic Rep. Susie Lee.
Johnson, who lost a tight race for the Clark County Commission last year but was largely overshadowed by his wealthy opponents, beat out Schwartz 32-23. Former state Sen. Elizabeth Helgelien leads O’Donnell, who helped compose the soundtracks for several entries in the “Halo” video game series, 20.5-20.3 for the meaningless third-place title. (The AP estimates 91% is reporting so the order that the losing candidates finished could change, but Johnson’s primary victory isn’t in question.)
Johnson, who along with his wife started a tradition of chucking plastic flamingos onto the rink to celebrate home game victories for the NHL’s Las Vegas Golden Knights, only raised a little more than $21,000 through May 22. The candidate self-funded another $100,000, which was still only a small fraction of what Schwartz and O’Donnell each had at their disposal.
It remains to be seen if GOP donors will take a new interest in Johnson now that he’s won the primary for a southwestern Las Vegas area seat that Biden took 52-46. National Republicans lost their first-choice candidate in January when Assemblywoman Heidi Kasama dropped out to seek reelection. One of her top supporters, Gov. Joe Lombardo, went on to endorse O’Donnell only to watch him lose on Tuesday.
● NV-04 (R): Former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee leads Air Force veteran David Flippo in the primary for the right to take on Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford, though the AP has not yet called this contest as of Wednesday morning. Lee holds a 48-45 edge with 86% of the estimated vote in. Biden won a 53-45 victory four years ago in this seat, which is based in the northern Las Vegas area but also includes a slice of rural Nevada.
Lee, who previously spent more than a decade in the legislature as a conservative Democrat, picked up Trump’s endorsement during the final week of the race. Both Flippo and far-right troll Laura Loomer responded by sharing an April clip of the ex-mayor struggling to say whether a felony conviction would prompt him to abandon Trump, but the cringey interview may not have been quite enough to derail him.
● Las Vegas, NV Mayor: Former Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley and Republican City Councilwoman Victoria Seaman advanced to the officially nonpartisan general election to succeed the termed-out incumbent, three-term independent Carolyn Goodman.
With 64,000 votes tabulated in the nonpartisan primary, Berkley leads with 35% as Seaman beat out another Democrat, City Councilman Cedric Crear, 30-19 for the second spot. The Nevada Independent has called both spots in the Nov. 5 general election for mayor of a city that, according to VEST data from Dave’s Redistricting App, supported Biden 54-44 during the last presidential election.
Berkley, who was elected to the House in 1998, left office following her tight 2012 loss to Republican Sen. Dean Heller. Seaman, for her part, is a conservative hardliner who had a bad relationship with party leaders during her brief tenure in the legislature.
The winner of the fall contest will be the first person outside the Goodman family to lead Las Vegas since the current mayor’s husband, Oscar Goodman, was elected in 1999.
● SC-01 (R): Rep. Nancy Mace won renomination 57-30 following an expensive battle with former state cabinet official Catherine Templeton.
Mace will be favored in the fall against businessman Michael B. Moore in a constituency that, thanks to an aggressive GOP gerrymander, would have favored Trump 53-45 in 2020. But Moore, who beat attorney Mac Deford 52-48, is hoping that Mace will prove sufficiently damaged to give him an opening. Moore is a great-great-grandson of the legendary Civil War figure and Reconstruction-era Rep. Robert Smalls.
Mace’s primary victory represented a major defeat for allies of Kevin McCarthy, who sought to punish the congresswoman for helping bring his speakership to an end last year. Still, while Trump reconciled with Mace two years after supporting her previous primary foe, the new House GOP leaders may not be so forgiving.
“Leadership doesn’t trust her, rank-and-file members think she’s a joke,” an unnamed former senior Mace staffer told Slate’s Jim Newell. “[S]he’ll never be able to be a chair of a committee because she’s not going to be able to fundraise in D.C. to the point that you need to get a chairmanship.” The same source confidently concluded of his one-time boss’ rise in the House, “She’s done.” As long as Mace keeps both Trump and local voters happy, though, she’s unlikely to ever be “done” in GOP politics.
● SC-03 (R): Far-right pastor Mark Burns will face Air National Guard Lt. Col. Sheri Biggs in the June 25 GOP primary runoff for this safely red seat in the northwestern part of the state.
Burns, an election denier and transphobe who has Trump’s endorsement, secured first with 33%. Biggs, who has Gov. Henry McMaster in her corner, beat out state Rep. Stewart Jones, who is a co-founder of the state’s branch of the far-right Freedom Caucus, 29-19 for the second spot.
The eventual GOP nominee will be poised to succeed Republican Rep. Jeff Duncan, who announced his retirement in January after his estranged wife accused the congressman—a prominent social conservative and host of an annual “Faith and Freedom BBQ”—of infidelity in divorce proceedings.
● SC-04 (R): Rep. William Timmons held off state Rep. Adam Morgan 52-48 to narrowly win renomination in a dark red seat in the Greenville area.
While Timmons had spent the last two years dealing with rumors about an extra-marital affair, that of course didn’t preclude him from obtaining endorsements from Trump and Gov. Henry McMaster. Timmons also benefited from heavy spending from the crypto-aligned super PAC Defend American Jobs and enjoyed a massive financial advantage over Morgan, who chairs the state Freedom Caucus.
House
● CA-49: A new poll from SurveyUSA shows Democratic Rep. Mike Levin with a 50-40 lead against his Republican foe, businessman Matt Gunderson, as respondents favor Joe Biden 47-42. Biden carried the coastal 49th District, which is based in southern Orange and northern San Diego counties, by a larger 55-43 spread four years ago.
This poll, which was conducted for KGTV-TV San Diego and the San Diego Union-Tribune, is the first independent survey we’ve seen since Levin and Gunderson advanced out of the top-two primary in early March. The only other numbers released over the ensuing three months came from a Gunderson internal from 1892 Polling that showed Levin up just 44-42 in April.
So far, major outside groups are not acting as though they believe this contest will be competitive. Neither the pro-Democratic House Majority PAC nor the conservative Congressional Leadership Fund have booked any general election TV time for the San Diego media market, which is home to more than two-thirds of the 49th District’s denizens. (The balance resides in the Los Angeles market.)
● MI-04: The House Ethics Committee last week closed its five-year-long investigation into allegations that GOP Rep. Bill Huizenga improperly used campaign cash to pay for trips last week without issuing any punishment.
Investigators determined that the congressman’s “campaign had inadequate recordkeeping practices” that led him to violate the chamber’s code of conduct, but they concluded he had not “engaged in clear personal use of campaign funds.” The Committee also pledged to “refresh its guidance to the House community on these issues based on lessons learned from this and other matters.”
The Huizenga probe began in 2018 and attracted more attention the next year when the Committee announced further action, but the matter largely faded from the news over the ensuing years. Huizenga currently represents the 4th District, a seat in southwestern Michigan that Donald Trump carried 51-47 in 2020.
● VA-10: Analyst Rob Pyers flags that the crypto-aligned super PAC Protect Progress has now spent almost $4 million to help Del. Dan Helmer ahead of next week’s Democratic primary, with $1.2 million of that being deployed this week.
Helmer, who served in the Army, has also benefited from $1.3 million in support from VoteVets. These two groups represent most of the outside spending in the contest to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton.
The largest expenditure for any of Helmer’s rivals is the $500,000 that the Indian American Impact Fund has spent to help state Sen. Suhas Subramanyam, who is Wexton’s preferred successor. Subramanyam would be both Virginia’s first Indian American and Hindu House member.
Legislatures
● WI State Assembly: State Assembly Speaker Robin Vos got some welcome news Tuesday when his sole intra-party opponent, conservative writer Andrew Cegielski, announced he was dropping out of the Aug. 13 Republican primary because of “circumstances beyond my control.” Cegielski, whose name will remain on the ballot, ended his campaign just over a week after candidate filing closed.
Far-right groups, however, still haven’t given up trying to remove Vos from office. Big Lie proponents submitted signatures in late May to place a recall on the ballot, a move that came weeks after election officials ruled that their first attempt lacked the requisite number of signatures. The Wisconsin Elections Commission has until June 28 to determine if this second attempt can move forward.
No matter what happens next, however, hardliners likely won’t give up trying to prevent Vos from winning in November. The speaker faces independent Kelly Clark, who aided the second recall campaign, as well as Democrat Al Kupsik, who is a former mayor of Lake Geneva. The seat the three candidates are seeking, the 33rd District, favored Donald Trump 63-35 in 2020.
Poll Pile
FL-Sen: The Tyson Group (R): Rick Scott (R-inc): 46, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D): 33 (46-36 Trump)
OH-Sen: Marist College: Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 50, Bernie Moreno (R): 45 (48-41 Trump)
Ad Roundup
Campaign Action
via The Novum Times
The Novum Times 